Detection Framework of Abrupt Changes and Trends in Rainfall Erosivity in Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Rainfall erosivity is commonly used to estimate the probability of soil erosion caused by rainfall. The accurate detection temporal changes in rainfall and identification abrupt trends are important for understanding physical causes variation. In this study, a framework introduced identify time series as follows: (i) significance variation assessed based on Hurst coefficient divided into three levels: None, medium, high. (ii) (Mann–Kendall, Moving T, Bayesian tests) (Spearman Kendall rank correlation variate between component original calculated. (iii) modified obtained preferentially eliminating (trend or change point) with larger coefficients. (iv) We substituted steps i iii until was not significant. This analyze Three Gorges Reservoir, China. results showed that using traditional methods, both an increasing trend upward point were observed Zigui station. However, after deducted from annual R(t), resultant Rm(t) no statistically significant trend. Trend analysis should be performed considering existence assess long-term series; otherwise, it would result wrong conclusion. addition, points detected varied methods. Compared single-test method, proposed can effectively reduce uncertainty.